The Bear Market
3 stages of a NFTfi bear market. growth can wait, survival cannot
Stay Inspired. Don't give up. Never stop buidling the dip. Also, Chris Dixon Rocks! David & Ryan from Bankless HQ keep us bullish ...
The excitement (and greed) from the bull market still exists. Mini-narratives pop up for weeks at a time. Assets still have floors. Valuations are cut but companies don't make the tough decisions (kill products, layoffs). Things seem alright. Stage 1 doesn't feel like a bear market. It feels like prices have pulled back to "realistic" valuations. Investors continue allocating, builders keep building... In general, life is good. Only the weak hands sell.
This is where it gets ugly. Narratives die. Prices fall 90%... then another 90%. Layoffs across the board. Mainstream media and cynics rise up in Stage 2. They laugh and shout "I told you!". Luna sent us into Stage 2. In Stage 2, diamond hands become forced sellers. They sell not because they want to, but because they have to. Celsius doesn't want to sell – they might have to sell. There will be more funds, companies, and individuals like Celsius. In Stage 2, any bounce will be immediately sold into. The dead cat bounce. Companies that need high token prices will be crushed. Founders that buy their own tokens to sustain their projects… they'll also get crushed. The lower prices go, the louder the bears get. The louder the bears, the lower the price go. This creates a vicious cycle. In Stage 2, prices crash violently. Excitement is replaced by anger.
After max pain comes max exhaustion. There are no bounces. There are no narratives. Prices consolidate sideways or slowly move down. It's boring. At the bottom, anger is replaced by silence. During Stage 3, you'll want to walk away. Regulators will kick us while we're down. Your favorite Twitter degens will go quiet. Web2 investors will quietly stop allocating. Talented builders will leave. Companies will shut down. You'll question every assumption you had. Stage 3 is the toughest to survive. If you're a company, do whatever it takes to get through. If you're a builder, stay interested. Find other builders. Buidl with them. If you're an investor, develop your own theses. Take bets on people you believe in. Don't lose sight of the big picture. We're building an open, permissionless world. It will take decades, not years. Close the computer, zoom out, and go for a walk.
Just don't give up (credit to YANO!) Long-term, bear markets are good. It tests individuals, companies, and industries. Those that make it are disciplined in a lasting way. Communities that form during these times hit a different level of strength and resilience, and that's gonna be us. Coz you can bet your arse that LTL Art Collective is not going anywhere. We've been through this before, multiple times, and we'll do it again. Pay attention to the NFT projects that are still building and growing their communities. The teams that survive this bear market will be unbreakable.
The class of '17 screamed the same things as the class of '13. If you are the class of 20-21 for this run, welcome. Stay around. Human nature doesn't change, bear and bull cycles ALWAYS occur.
Much of the volume came from OpenSea with approximately $2.6 billion. Other marketplaces that made significant contributions included Magic Eden, LooksRare, Solanart, Art Blocks, SuperRare, MakersPlace, Nifty Gateway, Foundation, and Async Art. In January 2022, total sales volume was approximately $16.57 billion with LooksRare leading the way with $11.1 billion for the month. May’s volume was $12.57 billion less than January’s—a 75% decline in just four months.
OpenSea’s May volume of $3.49 billion was: + $890 million more than April + $980 million more than February + and $2.37 billion over that of January 2022. LooksRare’s May volume of $1.06 billion was: - 67% below April’s $3.31 billion, - 64% under March’s $3.02 billion, - 85% less than February’s $7.41 billion, - and 90% beneath January 2022’s $11.1 billion. Magic Eden is one of the bigger NFT marketplaces and recorded around $292.1 million in May. This was a 23% decline in January’s volume of approximately $380.87 million.
08-12: non-sovereign store of value (Bitcoin) 14-17: digitally-native global capital formation (Ethereum + ICOs) 19-21: decentralized, programmable transfers of value (DeFi + NFTs) 23-25: killer integrated apps (stuff normal people actually get to enjoy)
frictionless onboarding (mobile) scaling solutions (L1 bridges, L2s) immersive experiences & NFT utility
Through the noise and the commotion, we invite our community to keep building with purpose.