The Bear Market
3 stages of a NFTfi bear market. growth can wait, survival cannot
Stage 1: The Unwind
The excitement (and greed) from the bull market still exists. Mini-narratives pop up for weeks at a time. Assets still have floors. Valuations are cut but companies don't make the tough decisions (kill products, layoffs). Things seem alright. Stage 1 doesn't feel like a bear market. It feels like prices have pulled back to "realistic" valuations. Investors continue allocating, builders keep building... In general, life is good. Only the weak hands sell.
Stage 2: Capitulation
This is where it gets ugly. Narratives die. Prices fall 90%... then another 90%. Layoffs across the board. Mainstream media and cynics rise up in Stage 2. They laugh and shout "I told you!". Luna sent us into Stage 2. In Stage 2, diamond hands become forced sellers. They sell not because they want to, but because they have to. Celsius doesn't want to sell – they might have to sell. There will be more funds, companies, and individuals like Celsius. In Stage 2, any bounce will be immediately sold into. The dead cat bounce. Companies that need high token prices will be crushed. Founders that buy their own tokens to sustain their projects… they'll also get crushed. The lower prices go, the louder the bears get. The louder the bears, the lower the price go. This creates a vicious cycle. In Stage 2, prices crash violently. Excitement is replaced by anger.
Stage 3: Exhaustion
After max pain comes max exhaustion. There are no bounces. There are no narratives. Prices consolidate sideways or slowly move down. It's boring. At the bottom, anger is replaced by silence. During Stage 3, you'll want to walk away. Regulators will kick us while we're down. Your favorite Twitter degens will go quiet. Web2 investors will quietly stop allocating. Talented builders will leave. Companies will shut down. You'll question every assumption you had. Stage 3 is the toughest to survive. If you're a company, do whatever it takes to get through. If you're a builder, stay interested. Find other builders. Buidl with them. If you're an investor, develop your own theses. Take bets on people you believe in. Don't lose sight of the big picture. We're building an open, permissionless world. It will take decades, not years. Close the computer, zoom out, and go for a walk.
The class of '17 screamed the same things as the class of '13. If you are the class of 20-21 for this run, welcome. Stay around. Human nature doesn't change, bear and bull cycles ALWAYS occur.
🐻⛓ may fix this tbh but still, "If bears don’t hibernate in the winter they die. Bears who kept trying to find food in winter probably died over time. Perhaps these bears were so addicted to motion, they kept confusing it for progress. Surviving bears learned to get fat in the summer and sleep in the winter." 👑 Asfi. CT added an extra layer of insight: "Bears actual utilize torpor and not true hibernation. So for the analogy, it means you shouldn't check out completely in winter but just do all one can to reduce energy use." PopStar 🔥
Update: The 3AC drama, and how long can this last, how much more downside in the next 33m?
NFT Market Update
As we don't have cash flow resources, and we want to kickstart our NFT project, it's not a great time because it is a pretty cash-flow intensive project tbh, and right now it's pretty hard to raise money as we start from zero. But I think it's a very good time to see the real projects survive and the fake ones get canceled because they simply cannot survive this crypto winter. Once the market stabilizes then that will be the time for our profitable launch. Until then we stay patient, keep shipping, and ride out the freeze.
NFT marketplace volume fell to just over $4 billion in May 2022, from $7.2 billion the month before.
Much of the volume came from OpenSea with approximately $2.6 billion. Other marketplaces that made significant contributions included Magic Eden, LooksRare, Solanart, Art Blocks, SuperRare, MakersPlace, Nifty Gateway, Foundation, and Async Art. In January 2022, total sales volume was approximately $16.57 billion with LooksRare leading the way with $11.1 billion for the month. May’s volume was $12.57 billion less than January’s—a 75% decline in just four months.
OpenSea’s May volume of $3.49 billion was: + $890 million more than April + $980 million more than February + and $2.37 billion over that of January 2022. LooksRare’s May volume of $1.06 billion was: - 67% below April’s $3.31 billion, - 64% under March’s $3.02 billion, - 85% less than February’s $7.41 billion, - and 90% beneath January 2022’s $11.1 billion. Magic Eden is one of the bigger NFT marketplaces and recorded around $292.1 million in May. This was a 23% decline in January’s volume of approximately $380.87 million.
What's Next?
08-12: non-sovereign store of value (Bitcoin) 14-17: digitally-native global capital formation (Ethereum + ICOs) 19-21: decentralized, programmable transfers of value (DeFi + NFTs) 23-25: killer integrated apps (stuff normal people actually get to enjoy)
frictionless onboarding (mobile) scaling solutions (L1 bridges, L2s) immersive experiences & NFT utility
Through the noise and the commotion, we invite our community to keep building with purpose.
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